"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"
Gegen Top 6: 1.125 ppg · gegen Rest: 1.477 ppg (Δ -0.352).
Prediction relevance: Top-6-Gegner haben keinen messbaren Sondereffekt.
At a glance
Mainz sit 6th after matchday 4 with 7 points (2W 1D 1L, goal diff +4). Last 5 form: DWLW (7/15 pts).
Top Scorers
Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 28321
- 1
Patrik Schick4 Goals - 2
Younes Ebnoutalib4 Goals - 3
Michael Olise4 Goals - 4
Yuito Suzuki4 Goals - 5
Phillip Tietz4 Goals
| # | Player | Club | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Harry Kane | Bayern | 3 |
| 7 | Jonathan Burkardt | Eintracht | 3 |
| 8 | Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | 3 |
| 9 | Maurice Krattenmacher | Elversberg | 3 |
| 10 | Michael Gregoritsch | Augsburg | 3 |
Form & Momentum
Mainz — Form & Home/Away
Last 5
DWLW
Home
1 Pts
Away
6 Pts
Last result: Win. Last 5 form: D-W-L-W.
The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).
Assists & Card Ranking
Bundesliga Top Assists
- 1
Marco Grüll4 Assists - 2
Matthias Ginter3 Assists - 3
Miguel Gutiérrez3 Assists - 4
Derry Scherhant3 Assists - 5
Sheraldo Becker3 Assists
| # | Player | Club | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fabian Rieder | Augsburg | 3 |
| 7 | Adam Daghim | Hoffenheim | 2 |
| 8 | Ellyes Skhiri | Koeln | 2 |
| 9 | Jordy Makengo | Freiburg | 2 |
| 10 | Ismael Saibari | Bayern | 2 |
Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)
- 1
Tim Kleindienst1 1 - 2 Ron Schallenberg0 1
- 3 Samuele Inácio0 1
- 4
Wouter Burger3 0 - 5
Phillipp Mwene3 0
| # | Player | Club | Y | R | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Felix Uduokhai | Union | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Raphael Onyedika | Eintracht | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Dayot Upamecano | Bayern | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Zeno Van Den Bosch | Union | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Antonio Nusa | Leipzig | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Statistical Splits BETA
What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 68 matches of the Kompany-Ära.
| Split | Group A | Group B | Δ ppg | 95% CI | p-value | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home games vs. away games | Home | Away | -0.18 | [-0.79, 0.41] | 0.59 | ⚪ |
| Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league | Vs top 6 | Vs rest | -0.35 | [-0.97, 0.28] | 0.28 | ⚪ |
| With vs. without Kaishu Sano in the starting XI | With Kaishu Sano | Without Kaishu Sano | +1.35 | — | — | ⬜ |
| With vs. without Jae-sung Lee in the starting XI | With Jae-sung Lee | Without Jae-sung Lee | -0.45 | [-1.35, 0.48] | 0.34 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Phillipp Mwene in the starting XI | With Phillipp Mwene | Without Phillipp Mwene | -0.08 | [-0.84, 0.65] | 0.85 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Dominik Kohr in the starting XI | With Dominik Kohr | Without Dominik Kohr | +0.13 | [-0.71, 0.92] | 0.78 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Danny da Costa in the starting XI | With Danny da Costa | Without Danny da Costa | -0.14 | [-0.82, 0.53] | 0.72 | 🟡 |
| Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week | Heavy week | Normal week | -1.35 | — | — | ⬜ |
| After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before | After UCL | No UCL | -1.35 | — | — | ⬜ |
| Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences | 0 absences | 2+ absences | -0.67 | [-1.64, 0.38] | 0.20 | 🟡 |
Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested
ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.
Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered
Myth Check BETA
What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.
"Midweek UCL games cost points"
Indikativ: Nach CL 0 ppg, ohne CL 1.353 ppg.
Prediction relevance: Kein klares Adjustment.
"Home games are different"
Heim: 1.265 ppg · Auswärts: 1.441 ppg (Δ -0.176).
Prediction relevance: Heimvorteil ist nicht überdurchschnittlich.
Data Analysis
Bundesliga matchday 4: BVB lead with 12 points (4W 0D 0L, goal diff +7). Lead over Bayern: 2 points. Mainz are 6th with 7 points. Last 5 form: DWLW.
This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.
What the data doesn't say
Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.
The 1. FSV Mainz 05 File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.
Frequently Asked
- Where do Mainz currently stand?
- 6th with 7 points after matchday 4 (2W 1D 1L, goal diff +4).
- Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
- Patrik Schick (Leverkusen) with 4 goals in the 28321 season.
- Will Mainz be relegated?
- Mainz are currently 4 points clear of the relegation places.
Related
The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?
- Predictions & Forecasts — title probability, transfers, schedule strength
- The 1. FSV Mainz 05 File — history, scandals, triumphs