The 1. FSV Mainz 05 Files
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Predictions

1. FSV Mainz 05

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
Mainz vs Eintracht
Kickoff
Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Oracle
49.0% / 23.7% / 27.2%
Akte Mainz — Club-Dossier 1. FSV Mainz 05
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Mainz's win probability against Eintracht?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 49.0% win probability for Mainz (home).
Where does Mainz stand in the table?
Mainz are 5th with 4 points after 2 matchdays. Goal difference: +5.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Mainz's probability come from — and what moves it?

Mainz vs Eintracht · Sat, 09/12, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home71.4%
Draw24%
Away4.6%

Mainz: 71.4%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Mainz home 0.0pp
Home71.4%
Draw24%
Away4.6%

Mainz: 71.4% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home49%
Draw23.7%
Away27.2%

Mainz: 49%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: +22.4pp — Pipeline model sees Mainz stronger than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 9 Sept, 06:00

Mainz vs Eintracht Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Mainz 49.0% 1.97
Draw 23.7% 4.07
Eintracht 27.2% 3.55
Spread Eintracht +0.5 @ 1.93
Total O/U 3.25 @ 2.01 / 1.88
Margin: 3.50%
Gladbach vs Mainz Sat 19 Sept, 13:30
Gladbach 34.1% 2.79
Draw 25.4% 3.75
Mainz 40.5% 2.35
Spread Gladbach +0.25 @ 1.80
Total O/U 3 @ 1.89 / 1.94
Margin: 5.06%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for 1. FSV Mainz 05. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 2

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 BVB 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +5 4
6 Bayern 2 1 1 0 +4 4
7 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +3 3
8 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Werder 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Koeln 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Eintracht 2 0 1 1 -3 1
14 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -3 1
15 Union 2 0 1 1 -4 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 HSV 2 0 0 2 -7 0