The 1. FSV Mainz 05 Files
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1. FSV Mainz 05

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

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Akte Mainz — Club-Dossier 1. FSV Mainz 05
Predictions
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Frequently Asked Questions
Where does Mainz stand in the table?
Mainz are 5th with 10 points after 6 matchdays. Goal difference: +4.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Mainz's probability come from — and what moves it?

Mainz vs Leverkusen · Sat, 10/10, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home43.4%
Draw24%
Away32.6%

Mainz: 43.4%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Mainz home 0.0pp
  • ⚪ Versus top-6 opponent 0.0pp
Home43.4%
Draw24%
Away32.6%

Mainz: 43.4% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home32.5%
Draw24.7%
Away42.7%

Mainz: 32.5%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: +10.9pp — Pipeline model sees Mainz stronger than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Oracle data unavailable. Next update cycle shortly.

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for 1. FSV Mainz 05. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 7

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 6 4 2 0 +17 14
2 BVB 6 4 2 0 +7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 +9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 +7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 +4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 +1 10
7 Leipzig 6 3 0 3 +5 9
8 Werder 6 2 3 1 0 9
9 HSV 6 3 0 3 -9 9
10 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 +4 8
11 Eintracht 6 2 2 2 -6 8
12 Koeln 6 2 1 3 -3 7
13 Stuttgart 7 2 0 5 -3 6
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 -4 5
17 Union 6 1 2 3 -12 5
18 Gladbach 7 1 0 6 -11 3